Week-to-Week: If the Eras Tour was a Movie (it would make a lot of money)
Karma is an independent theatrical release and an inevitable streaming director's cut
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Earlier this year, Barbie revitalized theatrical distribution by successfully ritualizing the theatergoing experience: people dressed in pink, gathered with friends who maybe rarely make it to the movies, and headed to their local theater to be part of something. While hardly the first time a film had achieved this level of success, it was the first time since perhaps Black Panther where it felt like there was a sense of responsibility to see a movie in order to bear witness to a cultural moment, this time without the built-in MCU buzz as a foundation.
When we look back on the state of movies in 2023, Barbie will be the biggest story, and after this weekend Taylor Swift will no doubt be there with her. Even before Warner Bros. delayed Dune: Part Two until spring, there was anxiety about the state of the fall box office, with October entirely devoid of a potential blockbuster. By choosing to release the Eras Tour concert film in theaters (more on the specifics of this in a bit), Taylor filled the vacuum and then some, creating an event—see Sam Adams’ piece at Slate for more on that—that led millions to rush to theaters and transform multiplexes into an extension of the tour itself, complete with themed outfits, sold out merch, and friendship bracelets.
Having had the privilege of being at the Eras Tour, the Eras Tour concert film was less transportive and more additive. While others in my theater did get up and dance, and I appreciated the good vibes this brought to the experience, I stayed in my AMC recliner to take in the full experience of the show from a more comfortable position. Having been extremely close to the stage, I had already been able to see the intimacy Swift creates through her 3-hour+ performance, but seeing the film allowed me to merge those memories with the bird’s eye view of the entire spectacle, and the numerous design elements that worked in conjunction with the choreography (which, the credits confirmed, is from So You Think You Can Dance’s Mandy Moore, which is an upgrade from her time working with the show’s Tyce Diorio). For me and my boyfriend, it was a chance to relive the experience of having been there, but without the five-ish hours of standing, the two hours getting out of the parking lot, and the 12-hour round trip to and from Philadelphia since she couldn’t be bothered to even play D.C.
But for others, it was a chance to be a part of a collective experience that they—like millions—missed out on. To my right at the screening was a teenager and her mother, the former regularly standing to belt out the songs and the latter trying her level best to match her energy. A few rows down, I saw an older gentleman putting on his best dancing shoes with his family, and there were a few glow sticks that AMC sold along with tote bags and popcorn tins waving at key moments. Even some of those who remained in their seats got into the collective spirit with their phone flashlights during “Marjorie,” and it definitely wasn’t only the dancing patrons who screamed out the now iconic “1, 2, 3, Let’s Go Bitch” in the opening to “Delicate.”
And yet, even in my opening night screening on Friday, you could sense a tension in the theater as to what this experience was meant to be. The thing about the Eras Tour is that there is such a shared understanding of what the space is, and the combination of the cost of attendance and the sheer scale of the event means that the “Participators” are going to be in control of the dynamic. There might be a pocket or two of relative disinterest—the tween with her mother next to us in Philly honestly seemed to be having a bad time, but I think that was because she couldn’t see much from a floor seat—but there’s never confusion about what the vibe is supposed to be.
The same is not true of the theatrical experience. With theaters actively encouraging cell phone use, my TikTok FYP was quickly flooded with footage from inside different screenings, but a lot of it was explicitly about the lack of consistency across experiences. In one TikTok, the user shows footage of what they imagined their screening would be (a raucous concert atmosphere that brings the Eras Tour experience to their multiplex) contrasted with their own experience—people sitting in silence taking in the movie.
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And in another, a young woman shares a tearful post about how mockery from other guests forced her and her mother out of the theater.
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As noted, theater owners were actively encouraging a breakdown of traditional movie theater norms—no usher would have chastised any person for doing their part to try to turn their screening into a proper concert atmosphere. But there’s clearly a degree of social pressure attached to the actions of the majority, and without a critical mass of participants there were Swift fans who wanted their own version of the Eras Tour experience (not just the concert) that would have left their screenings disappointed. However, TikToks came across my feed from the other perspective, as users lamented the breakdown of decorum that in their view distracted from their desired experience.
Now, to be fair, the video itself is responding to something that is certainly outside of the bounds of the traditional concert experience: there were no tweens cartwheeling in the aisles during the Eras Tour, and I’m not sure “Marjorie” is improved by an impromptu interpretive gymnastics routine. But when I looked in the comments, there was a conversation that has nothing to do with the tweens and everything to do with a part of the video that didn’t phase me at all.
This conversation threw me for a loop. Two of the users involved have “Taylor’s Version” references in their display names. These are fans of Taylor Swift. And yet they firmly reject these fans’ effort to feel like they’re part of the concert experience by mirroring a traditional concert behavior of using phone lights as a modern take on lighters. And look, don’t get me wrong: I understand that there’s something mildly absurd about applauding in response to a concert where the artist can’t hear you. But that absurdity is the entire point, and the cheering and awkward flashlight waving isn’t meant for Taylor—it’s meant to lay claim to some part of an experience that millions couldn’t afford, or had taken away from them by Ticketmaster wonkery.
These various reactions reinforced that there was no shared understanding of what the Eras Tour concert film experience was meant to be. While I have no doubt the very first screenings to go on sale were filled with the most die hard fans, the same wouldn’t be true as theaters added more screenings—part of why I was able to get Dolby Cinema tickets was because my local AMC only added the show after the initial on-sale (during which the AMC app wasn’t working well enough to get tickets), and I wonder if it would’ve been a more active experience if it hadn’t been added after the fact. But without designating certain screenings as “Full Fan Experiences” or some such, there was no way to reconcile that some people wanted to sit and take in the concert from the comfort of a dimly lit theater and others wanted to be dancing in the aisles. And as long as theaters were selling lots of popcorn and merch (my theater was out of popcorn tins by the time I wanted popcorn during the Red set on opening night when I asked out of curiosity), this type of tension was ultimately immaterial to the film’s success, as it went on to net $93m domestically.
But as large as that number is, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that exhibitors were expecting—or at least preparing—for more. If you haven’t been following the situation (but are still reading this newsletter about it), Taylor notably bypassed traditional film studios when shopping around the film and instead chose to distribute it through AMC Theatres’ own nascent distribution arm, which gave her the ability to cut out the middleman and negotiate terms—a 57% cut of ticket sales—that a studio would have never agreed to. Originally, the film was only going to debut in AMC theaters, but other North American exhibitors quickly leapt to distribute the film, and eventually that expanded globally as well. Yet because this all happened over the course of six weeks, the film’s performance became a moving target, leaving individual theaters to effectively guess at what kind of turnout they were likely to see. Early estimates for the weekend were closer to $150m domestically, mainly because the industry was clearly preparing for a release on the scale, as evidenced by the 52 individual non-premium screenings of the film on Saturday at the nearby 24-plex in Hampton, VA.
But the truth was that the majority of those 52 screenings—many in the multiplex’s tiniest theaters—appeared to be sparsely attended, and some were likely empty. I was checking them throughout the day on Friday, and again on Saturday morning, and it was clear that there was a fundamental miscalculation of the amount of walk-up traffic the Eras Tour would receive. And that’s because the people who wanted to have the Eras Tour experience had already been a part of the record pre-sales—while the global pre-sales total of $100m that AMC revealed on October 5 would have applied to screenings beyond this weekend (it’s playing Thursday-Sunday through at least November 5), the film’s $123m weekend box office was probably at least 75% pre-sales. The choice to debut early on Thursday netted only $3m, and chances are most of it was either fans who had neglected to purchase their seats in advance or—more likely—fans who had bought tickets in advance buying additional tickets to be among the first to see the film.
In their reporting on the film’s box office performance, Deadline speculates about whether the film would have performed better if it had been distributed by a proper studio, who could have spent considerably more on marketing the film and creating buzz beyond Swift’s fanbase. To their credit, they acknowledge that Swift and her team’s decision to bypass the studios is in their best interest: a $123m opening where they personally take 57% of the proceeds is far more valuable to them than a $200m opening where the studio gets the upside following their initial rights deal.
But I think we can go a step further and say that given the divisive response to the vibe in the film’s screenings, any marketing dollars spent beyond the grassroots work of Swift’s own social media would have been a bad investment. I would argue that every single person who would want to be a part of a ritual extension of the Eras Tour was well-aware the movie was launching this weekend, and that anyone who chose not to attend did so because they simply did not want to be a part of it. Some of them might make it out to a theater in week two or three when the crowds have died down, but the videos and stories floating around online might keep them further away. It doesn’t help that the price for entry is not a normal ticket price: it’s cute—and lucrative—for Taylor to price even base tickets at $19.89 (with upcharges for IMAX and PLF screens), but it also makes it that much less likely that someone will take the risk of having an experience they don’t want as opposed to simply waiting until the film will be accessible in the comforts of their own home.
And let’s be clear: the Eras Tour concert film will eventually make its way to streaming services. One of the key benefits of the AMC deal for Swift was that it allowed her to lay claim to the theatrical profits while still selling off the streaming rights for another huge sum down the road, given that the hype around the tour is going to keep rolling on into next fall (which is when I expect the film would make its way to Disney+ or Netflix). Moreover, while fans have lamented the excising of several songs from the show, cutting “Cardigan” and “Wildest Dreams” has a clear upside for Swift: a shorter runtime meant some additional revenue from the theatrical experience, and the ability to sell a Director’s Cut with the songs would give its eventual streaming home a built-in marketing hook to Swift’s most devoted fans alongside those who sat out this theatrical run. While it’s possible they weren’t happy with their footage from those or other songs, I lean toward the more cynical view that the shrewd, tactical thinking behind the theatrical release is extending to its long tail as a media object.
For now, theaters have to make decisions on whether or not there remains a significant market for the film in the coming weeks. Notably, the aforementioned Hampton theater has gone from 52 screenings last Saturday to only 17 this coming Saturday, while both local AMCs have also turned over the majority of their IMAX and Dolby Cinema screenings to Killers of the Flower Moon beginning on Friday (although some of that is ceded back on subsequent weekends once their contract with Apple and Paramount is complete). There’s also clear implications here for AMC’s next iteration of this concept, with Beyonce’s Renaissance launching in early December using the same business model (and a higher base price of $22). After some theaters may have found themselves with sparsely-attended screenings outside of premium theaters, it seems unlikely that the existing footprint for that film would expand, with my local theaters showing a fairly conservative approach that the Eras Tour film’s performance would seem to support.
Does any of this change the fact that Taylor Swift bypassed the studios, netted at least $50m on opening weekend sales alone (given the film’s reported $10-$20m budget), and still stands to make tens of millions more on streaming rights, all in addition to the hundreds of millions she’s making from the Eras Tour itself? Of course not. But it’s a reminder that while the success of the film may be unprecedented, and further reinforces how Swift’s status as the world’s biggest pop star gives her unparalleled leverage over all media industries, there are still established logics of theatrical distribution that qualify her global domination, and create a compelling collection of cultural and industrial experiences to think about as both the music and film industries move forward.
Episodic Observations
While I think the death of physical media within the film industry makes the prospect of a direct-to-consumer DVD/Blu-Ray release of the film incredibly unlikely, I do wonder about the prospect of a vinyl release for the concert, given how successful Swift has been at leveraging the format with recent albums.
I understand that every song is someone’s favorite song, but the cuts all seemed fairly logical to me in terms of featuring songs where there were only minimal production elements and no choreography. I might feel differently if we truly never get to see that footage, but I stand by my firm belief that capitalism will win out in the end. (I suppose it’s also possible that she brings a Director’s Cut to theaters later in the run, but I lean toward making it a value-add for the streaming sale).
A different question: we know that there’s footage of at least four additional surprise acoustic songs—”I Can See You,” “Maroon,” “You Are In Love,” and “Death by a Thousand Cuts”—that were part of the three filmed shows, but I’m less convinced we’ll be getting all of those, given how it would disrupt the flow of the show.
Related question: while I expect the songs consistently in the setlist will be restored, I’m less certain that Haim’s cameo for “no body, no crime” will make the director’s cut, but it was presumably captured during the shows.
My seats may have been great for the vast majority of the show, but they were inherently far away from songs like “The Man” which took place on the main stage rather than the “runway,” which is why it took until the film to realize there are some shockingly empty coffee cups being tossed around by the dancers. Does the very real liquid during “tolerate it” help? Yes. But still.
In terms of the studios trying to leverage the captive audience for future releases, I’m going to go ahead and say that Illumination licensing “Out of the Woods (Taylor’s Version)” for their duck movie is probably not going to move the needle, but I’m interested to know what the increased awareness does for the forthcoming Mean Girls: The Musical.
If you want to dig into Taylor Swift’s other media cycle at the moment, relationship-wise, fellow media scholar-turned-Substacker Anne Helen Petersen dove into all things Taylor and Travis at Culture Study:
“Which isn’t to say the whole thing is fake. Swift’s probably actually dating Kelce. But she’s also feeding that part of her that loves and needs to work. Managing the PR around this dalliance isn’t annoying to her; it’s fun. Which serves her well: some celebrities understandably hate that aspect of their work. But Swift, who’s had to navigate this reality since she was 17, knows how good she is at it.”
I think your point about any further marketing budget being a waste is spot-on, at least anecdotally. My partner is a much bigger fan than I am (she hasn't seen the show yet but has tickets for next year's leg) and I assumed we'd be seeing it this weekend, but she said she'd rather wait for streaming. It felt to both of us like a theater experience we either weren't totally welcome at (as less than die-hard fans) or wouldn't enjoy. We saw the Stop Making Sense re-release a few weeks earlier, which basically had normal movie theater etiquette with a lot of head bobbing and light singing. I think if that was the expectation, we'd have probably seen the Eras Tour in a theater, but as is, we were fine waiting it out.
Great write-up! Like you, I enjoyed lying back on my recliner and getting an up-close and personal view of the show I'd seen live twice so I could appreciate the finer details. There were a handful of audience members who stood up and danced, and a bunch of adorable shrieking girls down below, so it was pretty much the perfect balance. SOME concert experience, but not enough to be overwhelming. I already got the concert experience, so I wanted something different for this viewing.